It is very easy to generalise when it comes to talking about the Nordics region, suggesting that the common links between the countries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden mean they can all be talked about in the same way.

Nowhere is this clearer than in looking at the recovery, or not, of business travel. Taken as a whole, spending on business travel in the Nordic region rebounded to 74 per cent of 2019 levels by 2022, ahead of bigger European markets like the UK and Germany, according to the Global Business Travel Association. The association said it expected this figure to rise to 95 per cent when full 2023 figures are available.

However a different pictures emerges when you look deeper. Official statistics from Norway shows that the number of business trips by Norwegian residents in 2023 was 5.54 million, up from 5.05 million in 2022. In pre-Covid 2019, the number was 5.09 million, showing that business travel has well and truly recovered in the country.

Finland has yet to return in the same way. In 2019, the number of overnight business trips by Finnish residents was 5.64 million. In 2023, the number was 3.81 million, although this was a 7.6 per cent improvement on 2022.

Denmark, for its part, was one of the quickest countries to raise restrictions after Covid. In fact in 2020, Denmark had the highest proportion of business travel spending in Europe.

The Nordic economies are not in lockstep either. Denmark only faced a mild softening of its economy in 2020 due to Covid and the economy grew by around 5 per cent in 2021, 3.7 per cent in 2022 and a further 1.8 per cent in 2023. Output is now well above its pre-pandemic trajectory and has been boosted by the country’s pharmaceutical industry.

Sweden’s economy is expected to limp home with GDP growth of just 0.2 per cent in 2024, according to the International Monetary Fund. Yet even this is an improvement on 2023 when GDP declined by 0.3 per cent, driven by declining private consumption and residential investment, amid a significant tightening of financial conditions and eroding real incomes

Economic activity is cooling slightly because of high inflation and weakening external demand. Norway enjoyed only modest growth of 0.7 per cent in 2023, held back by weak development in domestic demand caused by interest rate hikes, higher prices and weak development in household real wages.

Finland had the worst economic performance in 2023 in the Nordics with GDP falling by 1 per cent. Inflation and a large government deficit held the Finnish economy back.

Looking at the IMF’s forecasts for the current year, Denmark will remain the economic leader with predicted growth of 2.1 per cent, followed by Norway (1.5 per cent), Finland (0.4 per cent) and Sweden (0.2 per cent).

The airline SAS, which operates across the region, is a good barometer. The carrier reported that passenger number had increased by 33 per cent, to 23.7 million, from 2022. It continued to be loss-making and remains in restructuring, bringing uncertainty for Nordic buyers. Premium air travel has historically been SAS’ focus but the share of the market has declined and the airline says it expects this trend to continue in the coming years. While other parts of the sector have increased, the airline has been subject to greater competition from low-cost rivals.

In the TMC sector, the region is generally more consolidated than other European markets with Finland in particular having few remaining independent TMCs. But there are some changes looming in the Nordic TMC sector that would be brought about by Amex GBT’s proposed acquisition of CWT.

Berg-Hansen operates CWT Norway. The company said, “The acquisition did not come as a surprise as the global travel agency industry has not been able to re-establish itself after Covid. The international travel market is still significantly smaller now than before Covid, and we will probably see more acquisitions and mergers in the future.”

Yet just 9 per cent of Berg-Hansen’s agreements are linked to CWT so the company will thrive whatever happens. “Structural changes always mean new opportunities. In particular, we see great opportunities in bringing our technology and experience into new markets. We shall not make hasty choices, but thoroughly assess alternatives so that we can develop Berg-Hansen into an even stronger supplier of professional meeting and travel services,” the company said.