WASHINGTON — Leaders of NATO countries will open their annual summit on July 9 in Washington to discuss ways to bolster the alliance’s defense capabilities and support Ukraine against the backdrop of political uncertainty in the host country and Russia’s intense bombing of Ukraine.
NATO is expected to announce plans for European members to boost spending on weapons and ammunition procurement following years of underinvestment as well as a 40 billion-euro ($43 billion) aid package for Ukraine.
The agenda of the three-day summit, which will mark NATO’s 75th anniversary, will be partially overshadowed by concerns about U.S. President Joe Biden’s age and ability to lead after his chances of winning reelection this November took a hit following his dismal debate performance against Republican contender Donald Trump last month.
Support and aid to Ukraine is likely to take on even greater immediacy at the summit following one of the worst Russian air attacks on the country since the Kremlin launched the full-scale invasion in February 2022.
The barrage of missiles fired across Ukraine on July 8 struck several civilian facilities, including Kyiv’s Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital, killing at least 41 people in total and injuring scores more in what Biden called a “horrific reminder of Russia’s brutality.”
Michael Carpenter, senior director for NATO at the National Security Council, told reporters on July 8 that the allies will announce new measures to bolster Ukraine’s security, including air defense and F-16 fighter jets, but he did not give any details.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has for months pleaded with NATO members for more air defense, especially the U.S.-made Patriot missile system, to defend its troops, cities, and infrastructure against large-scale Russian bombing campaigns.
The alliance will also announce a new NATO military command in Germany to coordinate the training and equipping of Ukrainian troops and station a senior NATO representative in Kyiv.
However, the summit will not extend an invitation for Ukraine to join the alliance. Carpenter said there was still no consensus on the issue among the 32 allies.
The NATO communique is expected to say that Ukraine belongs in the alliance without giving a time frame for when it will join.
NATO members also couldn’t agree on a multiyear military aid package for Ukraine that outgoing Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg had proposed. Instead, NATO will announce a one-year, 40 billion-euro package.
Biden and Zelenskiy will meet on July 11 and be joined by the leaders of about two dozen other countries that have signed bilateral security agreements with Ukraine.
Biden last month signed a 10-year agreement that calls on the United States, among other things, to help bolster Ukraine’s military-industrial complex through co-production and joint ventures with U.S. industry.
The expected announcements have disappointed some Western supporters of Ukraine who want greater aid and a clearer path into NATO.
“I don’t see this summit doing much for Ukraine at all,” Kurt Volker, who served as U.S. ambassador to NATO in 2008-09 and former special envoy to Ukraine in 2017-19, told the Center for a New American Security earlier this month.
But Carpenter said the commitments made to Ukraine during the summit will show that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy of outlasting the alliance won’t work.
NATO unity on Ukraine, however, will be challenged at the summit by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose pro-Russian views have irked the alliance.
Orban, who just took over the rotating presidency of the EU, flew to Moscow last week without informing the bloc ahead of time to discuss an end to the war with Putin. The trip was denounced by Zelenskiy, the EU, and the Biden administration.
NATO Spending
Defense spending by NATO members will be another hot topic at the summit. NATO members committed a decade ago to reach a defense spending target of at least 2 percent of gross national product by 2024. Stoltenberg said that 23 of the alliance’s 32 members will meet that target this year.
“One of the things you’ll see at the summit, certainly behind closed doors, is that there’ll be a lot of allies holding each other’s feet to the fire in terms of defense spending commitments,” Carpenter said.
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (Republican-Louisiana), a Trump ally, said on July 8 that Republicans “celebrate the peace and stability that NATO has secured…but we also believe that NATO needs to be doing more.”
“Everyone cannot ride along on the coattails of America. And Donald Trump says this as bluntly as anyone. It’s just right and fair for us to demand that others do their part,” he said.
The United States accounts for 68 percent of NATO defense spending.
Some Western officials say 2 percent should be a floor, not a ceiling, and that NATO members should be spending 2.5 percent or more amid growing threats from Russia, China, and Iran.
“If we look into the future, and we look into fully resourcing our defense plans and preparing for all possible contingency, this will require for a number of countries to go beyond 2 percent,” Benedetta Berti, head of policy planning in the office of the NATO secretary-general.
Johnson, who spoke at the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank, said Republicans were pushing for a “self-reliant European defense industrial base.”
Trump harangued NATO allies when he was president for not meeting their spending commitments, threatening at one point to withdraw the United States from the alliance.
Biden’s poor debate performance and the specter of another Trump presidency has many European allies worried. But National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the White House had not picked up any signed from allies that they need to “be reassured of American leadership and President Biden’s commitments.”
Strengthening ties with Asian partners to contain China will be another topic at the summit.
NATO allies will be joined by the leaders of four Asian countries, including Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. NATO members have criticized China for supplying Russia with electronics used in weapons production.
“The global threats and challenges we face, including from authoritarian actors and terrorist organizations, are all inextricably linked,” Carpenter said.
For Stoltenberg, the summit is expected to be his last major event before he departs the alliance on October 1. He will be replaced by Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.
