After claiming key posts, including EU foreign policy and defence in Ursula von der Leyen’s new commission, eastern European countries most wary of Russia look set to carry more sway.

As Moscow’s war on Ukraine grinds on through a third year, some of Kyiv’s staunchest supporters have risen up the pecking order as Brussels has reshuffled its deck.

Most prominent is Estonia’s ex-prime minister Kaja Kallas, who was tapped by EU leaders to be the bloc’s new top diplomat for the next five years.

Set to work closely alongside her, von der Leyen on Tuesday named another Baltic former premier, Lithuania’s Andrius Kubilius, to a new post aimed at bolstering the EU’s defence industry.

On top of that, Finland’s candidate scooped a broad role handling security, while Latvia’s pick got an economy role and Poland laid its hands on the budget — all subject to EU parliament confirmation in weeks ahead.

“I would say it’s not a power shift, rather more power balanced,” a diplomat from eastern Europe told AFP.

Placing representatives from countries that view Russia as an existential threat in weighty roles is seen as an acceptance in Brussels of the new reality.

“It shows that there is a broad understanding in the EU of what kind of threats we’re facing — that the biggest threats for the time being, unfortunately, are coming from the east, from Russia,” Kubilius told journalists after his nomination.

“It’s good that the EU is ready to use our knowledge, our expertise, for the common good, for really resolving challenges to our security.”

– Locking in Ukraine support? –

One of the winners of the new shake-up looks like it could be Ukraine.

As Russia’s invasion rumbles on, fatigue has grown among some allies and there are major question marks over continued backing from the United States ahead of elections in November.

“It’s clear that von der Leyen would like to lock in continued support to Ukraine into the structure of the new European Commission,” said Daniel Hegedus, an expert on central and eastern Europe at The German Marshall Fund think tank.

That said, even having fervent advocates for Kyiv at the helm in Brussels does not mean that EU states cannot change their minds on backing Ukraine in the future.

“She’s trying to shape future policies and politics, but it’s not a fait accompli,” Hegedus said of the EU chief.

He added that not only countries in the east — but also those in the south — had increased their prominence in the incoming commission.

That was in part due to the current weakness of governments in traditional powerhouses Germany and France.

But also because the regions once viewed as “peripheral” had clear visions of countering Russia or turning their back on years of frugality, Hegedus said.

While countries that have been strong voices on backing Kyiv and opposing Russia made gains — those who have kept closer ties with Moscow lost weight.

Chief among them is Hungary, which saw its man in Brussels demoted from handling the enlargement brief to covering health and animal welfare.

The rising prominence of Russia hawks on foreign policy and defence has stirred some concern in Brussels that the EU could lose sight of reaching out to other parts of the globe.

But analysts played down those fears, arguing the EU has the bandwidth to deal with multiple issues.

“The attention to Russia is a clear signal,” said Stefania Benaglia from the Centre for European Policy Studies.

“But I don’t think that this will come necessarily to the exclusion of other regions — we all know that foreign policy cannot be regional policy.”