Flavio Cobolli v Hamad Medjedovic
This is one of those markets where the price differential between the players simply looks too big.
Medjedovic was among the qualifiers last week, winning all three matches in straight sets, and I’m sure the Serb will have taken some positives from having practised with compatriot Novak Djokovic in the lead up to his main-draw opener.
But the rainfall of recent days should make the courts slower and the ball will likely become heavier. That will numb Medjedovic’s strong serve somewhat and such conditions have to favour the Italian.
Cobolli’s form is also strong – he was just a point away from reaching the Geneva Open final on Saturday before losing to Casper Ruud. He had earlier beaten Ben Shelton in Switzerland.
He’s mixed it with other top players on clay in recent weeks too, beating Alejandro Tabilo and Nicolas Jarry in Madrid before testing Karen Khachanov. He also took a set off Sebastian Korda in Rome.
The Italian had a couple of days to get used to the different conditions in Paris so I don’t see his Geneva efforts hampering him here.
At 7/4, he has to be worth a shot.
Giulio Zeppieri v Adrian Mannarino
OK, so this is more a bet against Mannarino but I simply can’t resist opposing him at the moment.
The world number 22 is a fish out of water on clay and his results this spring have been truly miserable.
Since hitting the dirt in Europe, he’s lost all four matches in straight sets with the scores showing how he’s simply been unable to compete (most recent first): 3-6, 6-7, 3-6, 1-6, 2-6, 2-6, 4-6, 0-6.
The Frenchman has now lost nine of his last 10 matches on all surfaces and won’t have welcomed the rain falling on Monday – and more is expected on Tuesday to slow the courts further.
A look at his Roland Garros record also gives reason to wince – he’s won just three of 18 main-draw matches over the years, the last victory coming in 2019. Since then, he’s lost five on the spin, four in straight sets.
Zeppieri is ranked lower than any of Mannarino’s recent opponents but he qualified impressively last week, dropping just one set and holding serve throughout two of his three matches.
On paper this would be the biggest win of his career but Mannarino’s record means he’s a firm favourite and I’ll back him to win in straight sets, albeit to small stakes.
Posted at 1830 BST on 27/05/24
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