Fascinating Moulin too tight to call

Group 1 action is back on the agenda at ParisLongchamp this Sunday where the top older European miler Charyn and the second best European three-year-old miler (though his own connections might disagree) Notable Speech clash in the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp.

It’s a fascinating showdown which is almost too tight to call – indeed, there is nothing between them on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings with the pair on 136, 2lb clear of their closest rival Henry Longfellow who figures on 134.

Charyn was a much lesser three-year-old last year than Notable Speech has been this season, finishing eighth in the 2000 Guineas and failing to get his head in front all year, but he’s improved significantly this season, suffering his only defeat in the strangely-run Lockinge and taking his form to a new level last time in the Jacques le Marois at Deauville which he won unextended by three lengths from French 2000 Guineas winner Metropolitan.

Roger Varian’s horse has already won this season over a turning, right-handed mile, as has Notable Speech who looked a seriously good horse in the 2000 Guineas and put his St James’s Palace flop behind him when winning the Sussex Stakes by a length and a half from the subsequently disappointing Maljoom.

Henry Longfellow has over three lengths to find with Notable Speech on that form but got hassled in front that day by Sonny Liston and is better judged on his St James’s Palace second place behind Rosallion where he also had Metropolitan three lengths back in third.

Caramelito has been successful on his last four starts at Longchamp and might be the one who takes the field along together with Tribalist having made all the running last time in the Prix Messidor but both are going to have to raise their game significantly as is the only filly in the field, the inconsistent Kelina, or the French 2000 fifth Ramadan.

Should the race turn into a test of speed I’d favour Notable Speech, but only slightly; should it end up strongly run I’d favour Charyn (but again only slightly) over Henry Longfellow who has long looked a strong staying miler. Whatever, a fascinating race!

Rest of Longchamp

The Prix La Rochette which opens the card has attracted eight runners and is virtually a domestic affair with only Joseph O’Brien’s Midnight Strike coming over from Britain or Ireland. He was well held in the Coventry Stakes before getting back on track in a valuable Sales race at Naas where he finished first in his group albeit only fourth overall.

He needs to improve a little trying this longer distance but that looks entirely possible given his pedigree.

Best of the home defence looks to be Tiego The First and Houquetot. The former showed a very tidy turn of foot to come from a poor position and beat the Karl Burke-trained Assertively in a Listed race at Deauville in July while the latter was no match for Midnight Strike’s stablemate Cowardofthecounty in the Group 3 Prix Francois Boutin there in August.

Official ratings also give a good chance to valuable sales race winner Heybetli but his form looks to me a little below the others I’ve mentioned.

Stars to put himself on the Map

Only seven go to post for the Prix du Prince d’Orange but what a cracking contest it is. John and Thady Gosden saddle the unbeaten Ombudsman who was impressive in the Listed Prix Nureyev at Deauville last month when looking stronger the further he went, beating Sons And Lovers easily by three lengths.

That was a very useful performance, but the opposition here is a fair bit deeper and he’ll need to find another 5lb or so of improvement to get the better of the French Derby runner-up First Look who looked to find the ground a bit too quick in the Hampton Court at Royal Ascot just over two weeks later.

He has the best form in the book and shouldn’t have too much to fear from the Simon Ed Crisford-trained Meydaan, who is back again in trip after running in the Queen’s Vase two starts back, the French 2000 Guineas sixth Supercooled, or the French Derby flop Fast Tracker, who looked good in small fields in the mud early in the season.

But he himself will have to be on the top of his game to see off the highly promising Map Of Stars who had French Derby fifth Mondo Man (now rated 109) and the now 108-rated Internaute behind when making a winning debut here last October and then looked a very smart prospect when making a winning reappearance in a Listed race at Compiegne in July. Map Of Stars needs to be every bit as good as I think he might be to win this, but the generally available 10/1 looks too big.

The seven-runner La Coupe over the same 2000m trip looks a very tight-knit contest with just 7lb between the septet on Timeform ratings. 2lb clear at the top is the evergreen eight-year-old Certain Lad who has been holding his form very well this year and scored by seven lengths on his only previous visit to France this year at Compiegne in June.

He’s the better part of a strong two-pronged British raid (Gala Stakes winner Al Mubhir is the other one but he finished two lengths behind Certain Lad at Haydock last month) in a race where the best of the home team looks to be Dolayli who was last seen in the Queen Anne at Ascot in June but, on his first run on fast ground, didn’t seem to let himself down after travelling strongly and finished well beaten. Back on easier ground and back up in trip, he can resume his previously progressive profile.

Finally, three horses stand out at the weights in the 3100m Prix Gladiateur, namely River Of Stars, Sevenna’s Knight and Harbour Wind.

River of Stars has only once raced over two miles, when fourth in the 2023 Lonsdale at York, and gained her only win this season in a fillies’ listed race at Pontefract over a mile and a half. With doubts about whether she is as good as she was in 2023, the claims of Sevenna’s Knight are easier to align with. He didn’t play much of a part in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud last time but the drop back to 2400m patently didn’t a horse who’d won two Group races over long distances here earlier in the season and he’s going to prove hard to beat on either of those bits of form.

That said, Harbour Wind looks the most interesting runner. He won three of his five starts last season, finishing his campaign by pushing the top French stayer Double Major close in the Prix Chaudenay when running easily the fastest last 600m and having Sevenna’s Knight two lengths behind.

He made a winning reappearance in a Listed race at Limerick in June when rallying well after being headed to get back up on the line and possesses the ideal combination of speed and stamina often required in staying races in France. I’d have recommended a bet on him but the only price available so far is 7/4 and that’s too short.

Review of the latest French action

Willie Mullins sending over a runner (and winner) to Bangor raised a few eyebrows on Friday but there was an equally unlikely visitor to Craon in north-western France last weekend when Aidan O’Brien sent over his two-year-old Lambourn to contest the Listed Criterium de l’Ouest over an extended mile.

Unsurprisingly, given the French juveniles don’t appear to be a great bunch on racecourse evidence so far, the son of Australia who’d won a minor event at Killarney on his debut, followed up but not after giving his supporters a scare with a very slow start and then a wide passage under Christophe Soumillon.

The French official handicapper took a very positive view of the form afterwards, awarding the home-trained second and third ratings close to 100, but that looks an over-the-top view given Lambourn was one of only two colts in a filly-dominated field. Something like the Zetland Stakes might be a late-season target given he looked very much a stayer. The other listed race on the card, the Grand Prix de Craon, was a dawdling affair (finishing speed 108% from 600m out) which went to Andre Fabre’s Maniatic who was the clear form pick and won with a bit to spare.

The previous day’s card at La Teste also featured two Listed races which aren’t really significant enough to dive deeply into here, but it would be remiss of me not to mention No Lunch who readers might remember I gave a glowing write-up to after a promising fast-finishing third in a Listed race at Chantilly in June. Sent off second favourite here behind the eventual runner-up Soldier’s Gold, unfortunately he ran for the second race in succession as if he’s got a problem, with his action even more distressing than last time, and anyone who still has him in their tracker and adheres doggedly to the ‘three strikes and you’re out’ rule is probably best deleting him before that third run.

Last Sunday’s ParisLongchamp card kicked off with the six-runner Prix d’Arenberg. The home defence consisted of just one runner, La Samana, who’d won a Listed race at Deauville last time where Irish raider Shamrock Breeze was second and Queen Mary third Maw Lam was third, but she ran as if at all wasn’t well, scrubbed along vigorously at halfway before being eased, and the race went to Molecomb runner-up Aesterius who beat the Super Sprint fourth Kaadi by a length and a half.

Given the tracking segments showed he hit a higher top speed than any of his rivals, ran the fastest section of the race and also ran comfortably the fastest final furlong there’s no doubt he was the best horse in the race but I’ve a suspicion his draw in stall 1 right next to the rail was a big advantage and for that reason I’m not inclined to give him the 2lb or so his finishing splits suggested his performance could be upgraded.

Higher price raises eyebrows

The following Prix Joubert was a very messy, steadily run affair as many races on the Moyenne Piste are with its downhill run into a very short straight, and the result would undoubtedly look different on a more galloping track with a longer straight. Aidan O’Brien saddled the first two in the market in the shape of Lily Hart and Mother Nature and, well placed throughout, they finished first and third split by the Simon Ed Crisford-trained Fairy Glen for whom the track configuration or the steady gallop wasn’t any use at all.

The bare form looks low for Listed level with several finishing a bit too close for comfort besides which fifth-placed Comic Book (Jessica Harrington) got no sort of run in the straight and fourth-home Le Combat Continue was another negatively impacted by race tactics. Interestingly, the tracking data had sixth-placed Panthera (David Menuisier) hitting the highest top speed by some margin as she ran on from a poor position turning for home and it will be interesting to see how she fares next time, with another trip back to France a distinct likelihood with this performance likely to go unnoticed.

Hopefully, given I wrote in my last French preview that Henry de Bromhead’s filly Higher Leaves was one who might also go under the radar in the Prix de Liancourt, at least a few regular readers will have taken advantage of the very generous starting price of 23/1.

Quite how she started that price having beaten the aforementioned Mother Nature at Dundalk in April and had an unlucky run in the Ribblesdale last time I’ve no idea but once she was sent to the front from her outside stall by crack French jockey Alexis Pouchin, in contrast to the ride she received at Ascot from Shane Foley (the only time he has ridden her) faced with the same dilemma, she never looked like being headed, dictating a steady pace (finishing speed 110%) and then quickening clear early in the home straight.

Like No Lunch, it might also be time to give up too on tracker horse Rock’N Swing. She’s undoubtedly got the ability to win one of these but constantly being held up at the back of field with plenty to do isn’t helping her cause and if she does pull one off, it might be a in a strongly run race as I’ve suggested before back at 1600m.

The other Listed race on the card, the Prix de la Cochere, stayed at home with the Godolphin-owned Mountain Song edging out the David Menuisier-trained Sirona who dictated a steady pace and only went down by a small margin.

Ralph Beckett’s Stop The Cavalry looked unlucky, however, finishing with a flourish once she finally got into the clear and hitting a top speed of 71.03 km/h as opposed to Mountain Song’s 69.44 and Sirona’s 68.72. A steady pace was also the order of the day in the Prix Gerald de Geoffre, formerly the Prix de Lutece, in which two riders ended up with bans totalling thirty-five days after an unsavoury incident that led to one of the runners breaking down.

That suited the always-handy Columbus and worked against the first two in the market, Shamarkand (my fancy) and Hamavi, both sustained gallopers, particularly Shamarkand who was set a big question settled in last place off a 119% finishing speed and emerges with the best upgrade by some way. He’s still unexposed and capable of a fair bit better under different circumstances.

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