The ‘Ryder Cup of tennis’ is back this weekend with Team Europe battling Team World in Berlin for the Laver Cup trophy.
The brainchild of Roger Federer, who retired at this event two years ago, the competition was dominated by the Europeans in its early years – with the ‘Big Four’ to pick from, they won the first four editions.
However, Team World have won in each of the last two years, by healthy margins too, with the famous quartet all appearing in 2022 (and looking rather over the hill) before none played in 12 months ago.
With Andy Murray having joined Federer in retirement and Novak Djokovic opting not to play, it had been left to Rafael Nadal to appear this time around but he withdrew earlier this month.
Europe are arguably stronger for it. All six of their players are ranked in the top 12 in singles, although there’s little in the way of doubles expertise.
Team World have only one player (world number seven Taylor Fritz) ranked higher than Europe’s lowest (Stefanos Tsitsipas) so it’s hardly a surprise to see odds of 3/10 about a ‘home’ win.
However, the visitors’ chances of a three-peat should not be discounted – not all Europe’s players are in top form, while the format is deliberately set up to give the underdogs a fighting chance.
We’ll take a look at those players shortly but first, let’s take a look at the format:
Alexander Zverev (singles ranking: 2)
Making his fifth appearance, no-one has won more singles matches in Laver Cup history than Zverev, while only Jack Sock has won more points. Has yet to finish top scorer though. Playing on home soil this time after a strong season, albeit he has been found wanting in some of the biggest matches. Is the highest-ranked doubles player here.
Carlos Alcaraz (3)
The French Open and Wimbledon champion makes his Laver Cup debut and will be expected to play twice in singles. Yet his form has dipped rather since Wimbledon with an early exit suffered at the US Open. Indoor conditions not ideal either.
Daniil Medvedev (5)
Recaptured some form at the US Open but when the quality level was turned up, he was beaten by eventual champion Jannik Sinner. Likes the hardcourts though and arguably still has plenty to play for this season given he hasn’t really achieved his goals.
Casper Ruud (9)
The only player from Europe’s humbled 2023 line-up. Boasts a perfect record in Laver Cup but recent form suggests that may not last. Ruud was struck down by illness at Roland Garros and has appeared to struggle physically often since.
Grigor Dimitrov (10)
Retired from his US Open quarter-final but that was more a fatigue issue than anything else. Should be better indoors and enjoyed this time of the season last year. The fact he’s still in the top 10 shows the Bulgarian has had a very consistent 12 months. A late replacement for Nadal in Europe’s team.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (12)
This will be the Greek’s fourth appearance in the competition so he knows all about the team environment. However, he withdrew from Davis Cup last week with a back injury which has bugged him for a while. Seems unlikely to be playing a leading role here, especially after an underwhelming campaign. Will likely play doubles at some stage though.
Taylor Fritz (7)
Should still be buzzing after a run to the US Open final, albeit that match saw him well beaten by Jannik Sinner. Has a strong record in Laver Cup play too. His big serve should work well indoors, although the court surface has been pretty slow in the last couple of editions.
Frances Tiafoe (16)
Decent record in this event and has played a key role in Team World’s two recent wins. The US Open semi-finalist is a player who likes the big stage so the glitz and glamour associated with the Laver Cup will doubtless motivate him. Should play plenty across the three days.
Ben Shelton (17)
Yet to lose in Laver Cup but Shelton’s season hasn’t exactly gone to plan. Hasn’t dominated with his big serve like many would expect him to. Captain John McEnroe will likely need Shelton to step up if Team World are to win again.
Alejandro Tabilo (22)
Like most South Americans, Tabilo prefers the clay, although he was a shock winner on hardcourts in Auckland at the start of the season. Arrives here after a miserable Davis Cup campaign on indoor hard in China, meaning he has now lost his last six matches. Looks a bit of a passenger in this team.
Francisco Cerundolo (31)
Similar things can be written about Cerundolo, who made the team last year but played only the singles rubber he was obliged to. That could happen again in Berlin. Did beat Jack Draper last week in Manchester though in similar conditions.
Thanasi Kokkinakis (78)
Got the nod from John McEnroe as a late replacement after some good showings on hardcourts in the past couple of months. Has gone 8-3 on the surface since leaving the grass behind, including a victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas at the US Open. Is also a former Grand Slam champion in doubles so could be something of a surprise package for Team World.
Team Europe have the better quality here with Zverev, Alcaraz and Medvedev looking capable of grabbing most of the points they require for victory.
It’s far from certain though and I’ve long felt the points format gives the underdog a greater chance than the odds usually suggest.
Fritz and Tiafoe both played very well at the US Open and if they show up in that form, TEAM WORLD certainly have the potential to outperform odds of 3/1 (Sky Bet) and complete a trophy hat-trick.
Kokkinakis looks a decent replacement given his form and doubles skills, while Ben Shelton has the talent if he’s able to find his best tennis.
Still, the more interesting bets look to come in the top-scorer markets.
The captains sprung no surprises when naming their opening-day line-ups – the six lowest-ranked players will all play singles on Friday when just one point per match will be up for grabs.
That immediately puts these players at something of a disadvantage.
However, one I’m still keen on is THANASI KOKKINAKIS.
He’s won eight of his last 11 singles matches so a good display against Stefanos Tsitsipas, who he beat at the US Open, could see him force his way into Sunday’s line-up.
The Australian also looks likely to play doubles at least once, maybe twice, and so a small punt on him being Team World’s top scorer looks worthwhile at 5/1. He’s 18s to be the top scorer overall.
Frances Tiafoe also has potential here at 3/1 – he was joint top-scorer a year ago with six points.
He could well play singles and doubles on both Saturday and Sunday, although that’s also a lot of tennis and I was half-expecting the American to play doubles on Friday night to ease his workload a bit.
Perhaps he’s still fatigued after his US Open exploits so preference is for Kokkinakis.
For Team Europe, Zverev has a fine record at this event and the German should also be motivated by the home crowd in Berlin.
I’d be staggered if he didn’t play singles on Saturday and Sunday, while he’s also in for doubles on Friday night.
Still, the market has him right here – Zverev is the 7/4 favourite to top-score for the hosts and 11/4 to land the overall honours. That’s not a price for me.
Posted at 0905 BST on 20/09/24
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