Golf betting tips: European Masters

3pts e.w. Matt Wallace at 20/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

2pts e.w. Bernd Wiesberger at 25/1 (Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Antoine Rozner at 60/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Marcus Kinhult at 125/1 (William Hill, 888sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Matthias Schwab at 200/1 (William Hill, 888sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

There are many reasons why players choose this event or that, often to do with money. Seldom is the course top of the list, a fact which will be made clear by next week’s Irish Open field. The same is true of the location of said course, because otherwise every single golfer with the required eligibility would be in the Swiss Alps for the Omega European Masters.

Crans Montana is likely on the bucket list of many readers because it’s certainly on mine. And there, up in the mountains, is this preposterous, delightful little golf course, where Seve Ballesteros once hit the best shot hardly anybody witnessed. Even that fact has charm and it’s no wonder Seve adored this place and all of its absurdity.

Unfortunately, because the FedEx Cup finished last week and the Irish Open is next week, we’ve only a handful of top-tier DP World Tour players, and only one from DataGolf’s top 50. That’s Matt Fitzpatrick, a two-time course winner who should’ve made it a hat-trick last year, only to step aside and allow Ludvig Aberg through. Perhaps that was Fitzpatrick’s way of contributing towards European Ryder Cup success.

We therefore have a similar market to the British Masters, Fitzpatrick replacing Tyrrell Hatton, and despite his impeccable course form it’s probably right that the Sheffield man is a bigger price. It’s been a poor year by his lofty standards and returning to those DataGolf rankings, he’s considerably further down than Hatton.

Then again, Fitzpatrick does have course form by the bucket-load and has won three of his last 25 DP World Tour starts. That love of Crans might be enough to spark him back to life and will certainly be enough for some to give him the benefit of the doubt. I, however, can’t look past the fact his tee-to-green game has been ragged lately.

When assessing the chances of MATT WALLACE I find it hard to escape some of the very earliest things you learn about if you happen to be from a family of bookmakers, bettors, or both. I reckon even distant relative Godfrey of Bouillon liked a bet, you know.

One is that you have to trust your eyes. This seems more and more archaic with every passing year, as we find out how a horse’s stride pattern and their closing sectionals might help us to predict how they’ll run next time. Still, the eye test for now retains plenty of relevance and I for one can’t imagine ever discarding it.

The other concerns following horses – or golfers – off a cliff. The point here is to know when to get off; to understand that sometimes, experiments, projects, whatever you want to call them, well they have to be abandoned before you really do come unstuck.

Thankfully, selecting Wallace for the KLM Open and then again on his next DP World Tour start, at last week’s British Masters, still leaves us some way short of the cliff edge. We’re by the coast, absolutely, and we’ve seen the sea by now. But even a missed cut in Crans I don’t think would see us tumble to a rocky death.

As for the eye test, well what can I say? Last week, he had next to no chance after half a dozen holes and ended round one right among the very worst putters in the tournament. Then he shot 68 on Friday, followed it with another 68 on Saturday and, while too far adrift to hold realistic title ambitions, added a third 68 on Sunday to finish inside the top 10.

In the KLM Open, he was two behind entering the final round. Then, at the first par-five, his third shot was half a club strong, directly over the flag, and after a heavy-handed pitch and three putts, he’d run up a tournament-ending seven. In the end, he’d have needed to shoot 68 on Sunday to feature in the play-off.

To say I think he’s very close to putting four rounds together would be a major understatement and he knows it, too, so he was always going to feature in this week’s staking plan providing the price was right. And, thanks in part to the presence of Fitzpatrick and the performance of Thriston Lawrence at the Belfry, the price is indeed right.

Wallace was a slightly unfortunate runner-up behind Lawrence in 2022 then 24th last year, a particularly high-class renewal as the likes of Ludvig Aberg and Nicolai Hojgaard set about impressing Luke Donald ahead of the upcoming Ryder Cup. That he wasn’t on the radar himself, despite a runner-up finish the previous week, tells you how poor he’d been throughout summer having won on the PGA Tour back in March.

Second place to Lawrence came a few weeks after a missed cut at the Wyndham Championship so this time he might benefit from having reacclimatised to European conditions at the Belfry, where he was eighth in the end, and there’s absolutely no denying the fact that he needs results and he needs them soon.

Yes, he does have another year’s exemption on the PGA Tour, but he’s 117th on the Race to Dubai and that means as things stand, he won’t be playing events like the Dubai Desert Classic next year. Getting into the Ryder Cup side without opportunities to impress in Europe will be extremely difficult. Doing so without major starts as well – as things stand he’d only sneak into the PGA – might just be impossible.

Wallace isn’t alone in facing such a predicament but he’ll be desperate to get back out to the PGA Tour for the FedExCup Fall. To justify doing that, he’ll surely need to have at least locked up a European Tour card for next year and as he isn’t in the Irish Open, it’s this or Wentworth. I maintain that he’s playing well enough, and is the right sort of character, to go and get it done.

Of course, he’d also want to be playing the final two events of the DP World Tour season, in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, where he’s so comfortable. That might require a win and I’ll give him a third chance to go ahead and get it.

Bernd notice

The improvements Wallace has shown with his short-game over the past few weeks are another source of encouragement but if there’s one asset you need here, it’s a quality wedge game. That covers so many former champions and iron play in general would tie in the shock 2019 winner, Sebastian Soderberg, along with the three who’ve followed. Last year, Aberg’s ball-striking was so good that he didn’t need to putt well.

With this in mind, it’s time to return to BERND WIESBERGER, who was denied by Rasmus Hojgaard three years ago but might now gain compensation.

In a year of overall frustration on the DP World Tour – one winner to this point isn’t very good, eight runners-up is downright maddening – we were right to believe that Wiesberger would reestablish himself as one of the best players around, and he’s spent much of the past few months at or close to the top of the market.

That remains the case here but with Fitzpatrick and the Hojgaard twins, plus Lawrence’s effort last week and the return of his compatriot Erik van Rooyen, Wiesberger is a little further down the list despite this being an ideal test at what could just be an ideal time.

Sixth and 19th since the circuit resumed following its summer break, Wiesberger even showed a bit of something with the putter last time but that club might only need not to misbehave entirely for him to have a good chance here.

Tiny, largely flat greens mean that long-range putting is quite rare and Wiesberger, a little like Tommy Fleetwood, has long been one of the most underrated chippers around. Around the green he’s first in this field in 2024 and the same goes for scrambling, which is quite something when you consider how many putts he’s missed.

Fifth in strokes-gained approach, third in greens, top 30 in fairways and clear first in the overall tee-to-green stats, Wiesberger is accurate, he’s a fine wedge player, and he chips and pitches as well as anyone. While the course in Prague was probably too in favour of the bombers, this one is perfect.

Second place in 2021 should’ve been first but he stumbled with a Ryder Cup place on the line and having sounded thrilled with the state of his game when featuring on the Sky Sports broadcast two weeks ago, compensation may well be on its way.

Both Hojgaard twins appear dangerous along with van Rooyen now dropping in grade, but among a strong group of favourites it’s Matteo Manassero who I found hardest to leave out. Had his price not hardened quickly after betting opened, it’s likely he’d have made the staking plan, but at a best of 25s he’s omitted on perceived value grounds.

Another dynamite chipper, Manassero’s long-game in general has been fantastic of late. Twice in his last four DP World Tour starts he’s led the field in greens hit and following 18th in the Olympics, he was sixth at the Belfry where his irons were excellent once more.

His record at Crans now features a bit of everything but it really just follows the arc of his career. When he was among the best in Europe, at an almost impossibly young age, he was a feature in the mix, and with his iron play and chipping similar to that of Wiesberger, he’s the one I fear most.

Last year’s headline selection was Alex Bjork at 28/1 and when you consider that Aberg won and the likes of Robert MacIntyre and Adrian Meronk were in the field, clearly this is weaker. As such, seeing him at 50s and bigger is a bit of a surprise but he’s taken a month and a half off since the Open and while he’s gone well after a break in Abu Dhabi and South Africa, it’s a concern I can’t shake.

Still, he was 12th on his only regular DP World Tour start this year before back-to-back missed cuts in Scotland which probably don’t tell us much. Overall it’s been a predictably tough rookie year on the PGA Tour but if he’s fit and healthy then a jolt of improvement is likely, particularly having chosen Crans for his return to action.

French connection points to Rozner

Second last year and always close to the lead in this event, Bjork is a real course specialist but I’ll side with another in ANTOINE ROZNER, who can hopefully feed off the strong French vibes which saw David Ravetto and Frederic Lacroix win back-to-back in August.

Rozner had a massive chance himself at the Italian Open in June and was then in the mix in the Scottish Open, too. In fact he’s had several opportunities this year, despite being less consistent than he’d like.

Last week’s 73rd at the Belfry will put a few off but he’s said before that he’s not comfortable there, and yet there were some welcome positives from his short-game, which has cost him plenty of shots in 2024 and a trophy in Italy.

On his previous start, Rozner narrowly missed the cut in Prague after five weeks away, yet it was the best he’d driven the ball since this event almost two years ago. His irons, which have been strong for much of the season, remained in decent nick too.

In other words if you’re willing to discount one bad week at a course he really doesn’t like, you then have a class act with course form figures of 13-4-24, who has led the tee-to-green stats twice in three Crans appearances, and who ranks second only to Bjork in adjusted and actual scoring among those who’ve also played in all three.

Rozner absolutely loves it here and while he’s stuttered since the restart, his odds more than reflect that fact. Given the mitigating circumstances and this golden run for French players, 50/1 and upwards has to be taken and if he can drive it as he did in Prague, he’ll have stacks of chances.

Look to Kenya for clues

The Kenya Open has been a handy guide to this for a while now, because the courses are similarly short and tight and altitude is a big factor in Nairobi. Soderberg is the embodiment of this connection but had Lorenzo Gagli won that play-off, it still would’ve applied – both are on the Kenya Open roll-of-honour.

Darius van Driel won there earlier this year and could be worth a look for a top-20 finish, while runner-up and subsequent Soudal hero Nacho Elvira has an excellent record here. Many will look to him for the first-round lead, while I also have half an eye on Jason Scrivener in the same market at what’s a massive price and his compatriot David Micheluzzi could love this test.

My two outsiders though are MATTHIAS SCHWAB and MARCUS KINHULT.

Schwab was 33rd last week after a run of four missed cuts, but each of those was by a narrow margin. Before that, he’d been 10th in Italy and 27th in Germany, both events having been played at the sort of tree-lined courses he so enjoys.

Top-10 finishes at both Muthaiga and Karen give us the Kenya connection and he in fact ranked seventh in the tee-to-green stats at the former course earlier this year, only for his putter to let him down on that occasion. He’s also been third in the Barracuda on the PGA Tour, again at altitude, while in just three Korn Ferry Tour starts he’s been fourth in Boise.

As in Kenya, Schwab’s putter was again the problem at the Belfry, where he was seventh in strokes-gained approach, but he’d been putting nicely in the weeks prior to that and his short-game in general has often been a strength since he graduated college as a highly-touted prospect.

Schwab actually played well here as an amateur almost a decade ago and on his most recent visit, in 2019, was the first-round leader, sat second at halfway, and eventually finished ninth in that high-class renewal which also featured Rory McIlroy.

Yes, he’s found winning a step too far but with a generally excellent record at altitude, and this being absolutely the right kind of course, I’ll gladly add a second Austrian to the staking plan here in neighbouring Switzerland.

Kinhult also showed up well here as an amateur in 2015, finishing 10th, and while yet to better than he’s made six cuts from six, averages 68.5, and generally looks right at home in the Alps.

He too has some strong form in Kenya, where he’s yet to miss a cut, and he’s returned to action with 12th in Prague and 23rd at the Belfry, two really strong performances. The first of them came at a course made for much bigger hitters, too.

Yes, he’s leaned on his short-game but if he can just tidy up a little from the tee, a second DP World Tour title may well be within reach. He came agonisingly close to that as recently as June and, for the most part, his play since suggests he can strike again in the coming weeks and months.

Posted at 1000 BST on 03/09/24

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