Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) decide on Thursday whether to hand Ursula von der Leyen a second term as European Commission president.

Despite Ms von der Leyen’s recent efforts to shore up support, the outcome of the vote – due to take place at the European Parliament in Brussels at 13:00 (11:00 GMT) – is far from certain.

European leaders officially nominated Ms von der Leyen at a summit in Brussels at the end of June.

The decision came despite resistance from Italy’s Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, who abstained from the vote after accusing fellow EU leaders of excluding parties like her own from the conversation.

Ms von der Leyen, who has had the job of Commission president since 2019, will need 361 votes in order to be confirmed for a second term.

Support from her own centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), the Socialists & Democrats and the liberal Renew should give her enough votes.

But what makes things potentially tricky is that the vote is secret – meaning MEPs can cast ballots according to their inclinations rather than the declared party line.

Several Irish MEPs belonging to centrist parties have said they would vote against Ms von der Leyen’s nomination because of her stance on the war in Gaza. Some French MEPs belonging to Ms von der Leyen’s own EPP grouping have also said they won’t support her.

To limit the potential for unwelcome surprises, over the past few weeks Ms von der Leyen has held private meetings with some parliamentary groupings in an attempt to secure their votes.

Her bid has not always been successful. After one such meeting, MEPs belonging to the Left grouping said they had decided not to vote for Ms von der Leyen due to her willingness to increase military and defence spending.

She also met with the Greens and received positive signals – although some MEPs said they would wait to hear Ms von der Leyen’s speech on Thursday before making a final decision.

She reportedly managed to convince some members of the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) to back her, although the Romanian, French and Polish delegations have said they would vote against her.

The Italian prime minister, who leads the ECR, is also said to be holding off on making a decision on how she will instruct her 24 Italian MEPs to vote until after Ms von der Leyen’s address.

However, according to Italian media she is leaning towards endorsing Ms von der Leyen in exchange for Italy being offered a senior job in the next Commission – such as the coveted economy or competition portfolios.

Ms Meloni, who heads the far-right Brothers of Italy party, has gained a prominent status among European right-wingers.

The third biggest group in Parliament, the newly formed Patriots for Europe, has refused to back Ms von der Leyen. Formed by Hungary’s Viktor Orban, it includes the leaders of far-right parties in France, Austria and the Netherlands.

If Ms von der Leyen does not pass today’s European Parliament vote, the EU will be back to square one, with leaders having to agree on a new candidate who would then need to be approved by the Parliament.

Although names have been floated, no obvious alternative candidate has emerged so far.

Ms von der Leyen won the job five years ago, when her name was put forward by EU leaders in a last-minute deal after a political stalemate over other contenders.

At the time, she was voted in with only nine votes over the required majority. Thursday’s vote might end up being just as close.