Weekend View betting tips: Cheltenham Festival

1pt win Quilixios in the Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase at 7/1 (General)

1pt e.w Ndaawi in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at 10/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5 – William Hill, 888)

1pt e.w Ballyadam in the Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle at 20/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5 – Bet365, Sky Bet, William Hill, 888)

1pt win Theatre Man in the Trustatrader Plate Handicap Chase at 6/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Ground conditions at Cheltenham at the time of writing are currently soft, heavy in places, but with a relatively dry forecast for the remainder of this week, it is sure to dry out, and it is a best price 6/4-on that the first race on Tuesday will be run on good to soft.

The Cheltenham Festival was dealt a big blow on Monday when Constitution Hill and Marine Nationale were both ruled out of the meeting. In the case of the Champion Hurdle, another heavy odds-on favourite has slotted into position, highlighting how weak the championship two-mile division is, but the Arkle has a much more open look to it.

It is a race that Henry de Bromhead has won twice before with Sizing Europe (2010) and Put The Kettle On (2020) and he has another interesting contender this time around in 2021 Triumph Hurdle winner QUILIXIOS.

As is so often the case, he struggled to make his mark in open company over hurdles the following season, running just the three times, and on each occasion finding Teahupoo too strong. That isn’t bad form, though, and that rival is currently favourite for the Stayers’ Hurdle.

Quilixios missed all of last season through injury, but he has made a grand start since returning over fences, defying an 18-month absence when making a winning start in this sphere over 19 furlongs at Limerick in October, overcoming a bad mistake at the last – where his rider briefly lost his irons – and finding plenty for pressure.

He possibly found the race coming too soon and seemingly failed to stay the longer trip when well beaten over three miles in the Florida Pearl Novices’ Chase at Punchestown on his next start in November, but he bounced back to form with a bang when winning a novice over two miles at Naas in January.

One of the most impressive aspects of that performance was how accurate he was at his fences, going with plenty of zest at the head of affairs and never looking in trouble at any stage of the race. Mr Policeman, who started odds-on, has since come out and won a race to give the form some substance, and Quilixios represents a trainer who has a good record at improving his novice chasers.

It doesn’t look a deep renewal of the Arkle, and you can definitely see it cutting up with Willie Mullins responsible for four horses – who all hold multiple entries – ahead of him in the betting. Therefore, it is hard not to like the chances of Quilixios at around the 7/1 mark, given he will likely be ridden positively in what will likely be a smallish field, and he strikes as the type who has much more to offer over fences at two miles.

It can be a tricky scenario picking value bets at this stage with every firm offering non-runner-not-bet concessions and any fancy prices about certain horses have almost certainly gone, while you are also likely to get the same if not bigger odds – with enhanced place terms – on the day of racing such is the competition with bookmakers next week.

There are still more bets to be had, however, and I’m always keen to get one on side in the Fred Winter, which is now known as the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle. Irish-trained horses have dominated this race in recent years – just as they have all of the handicap hurdles at the Festival – winning it every year since 2018, and Gordon Elliott is responsible for two of those.

He has no less than nine entries for this year’s renewal, but his leading hope is NDAAWI, who was a useful performer on the Flat when trained by Andrew Balding, and has improved with each start over hurdles since being purchased by these connections for 62,000 guineas in October.

Ndaawi finished half a length in front of current favourite Lark In The Mornin on his debut at Leopardstown in December, where he showed an aptitude for hurdling, but didn’t get the clearest run in the straight. He improved as expected next time when three and a half lengths third to Miss Manzor in a steadily-run race at Fairyhouse, still having every chance jumping the last but leaving the impression he was still in need of the experience and not given a hard time on the run-in.

He found another chunk of improvement when easily landing the odds in a big-field maiden at Naas last time, again ridden positively but this time proving in a different league to his rivals, jumping soundly and readily drawing clear on the bridle from two out. Ndaawi was eased considerably in the closing stages, having much more in hand than the official margin suggests and looking a good prospect.

Ndaawi has been handed a mark of 134 by the British handicapper, which seems reasonable enough, especially based on the pick of his efforts on the Flat. He is a smooth traveller who will be suited by a more truly-run race, something he is almost certain to get in the Fred Winter, and likely better ground will be no problem for him either.

He is currently 10/1 in several places, but it is easy to see him setting off shorter than that on the day given his progressive profile and, though he is much worse off at the weights with Lark In The Mornin, and slightly with Miss Manzor, his trainer is a dab hand at targeting races and it is unlikely he has shown his true colours as yet.

The Coral Cup is one of the fiercest handicaps of the week where experience in big-field handicaps – especially at Cheltenham – will definitely stand you in good stead and, with that in mind, the horse I like at the prices is another Henry de Bromhead-trained horse in BALLYADAM.

He finished runner-up to Appreciate It in the Supreme in 2021 and has finished fifth in the County Hurdle on his last two starts at the Festival from marks of 144 and 148. He tanked through the race 12 months ago, looking very threatening turning into the home straight and was one of the last horses to come off the bridle.

Admittedly, he has flattered to deceive before, not always finding as much as looked likely off the bridle, but I think this intermediate trip over hurdles could be the making of him. Ballyadam had nothing left to give over just short of three miles in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas, but he was far from disgraced, and is well worth another try at this sort of trip back in handicap company from a mark 1lb lower than what he raced off last year. He clearly goes well at this track and, though he is also in the Stayers’ Hurdle, this looks the obvious race for him and 20/1 looks a fair price.

My last ante-post selection comes in the shape of THEATRE MAN, who I put up in this space when he was runner-up to Ginny’s Destiny in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase at Cheltenham on Trial’s Day.

The winner that day is toward the head of the betting for the Grade 1 Turners Novices’ Chase, so Theatre Man lost little in defeat – for all he was receiving 13lb – and he remains a horse to be positive about from just a 3lb higher mark.

Theatre Man is in the Ultima and the Plate, and both options are reportedly under consideration, but given how well he run over the same course and distance as the Plate last time, you would imagine connections will opt for that race, while he would need plenty to come out of the Ultima to get a run (currently 60 on the list).

He ran a cracker that day, travelling comfortably in touch but he just got a little out of his ground when the pace lifted down the back, while a mistake at the fourth-last halted his momentum somewhat. He got himself back into contention in the straight and, though the winner had already flow, it was very encouraging to see Theatre Man finish his race as strongly as he did.

That form is already working out well, with fourth-placed Prairie Wolf having won a handicap since, while Blow Your Wad, who finishing sixth, won the Pendil Novices’ Chase at Kempton on his next start. There is surely more mileage in Theatre Man’s mark of 137 and the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase has a rich history of producing future Festival winners.

Preview posted at 1445 GMT on 05/03/2024

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