Since we’ve now reached another international break, it’s time to take another look at how things are going in the Premier League, LaLiga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1. Regardless of whether or not you follow or play our Predictor games for each of those leagues, it’s (hopefully) interesting to take a look across the continent at how things are developing.
As a general overview, I’d say at least three of the five leagues are playing out very differently to what was forecast by the majority of us during the summer, and with such a packed calendar there should be plenty more twists to come.
The sheer number of matches that are being played by the top teams in Europe makes things quite unpredictable in my opinion, as managers are forced into rotation from midweek to weekend and the number of serious injuries continues to rise (there were numerous ACL injuries sustained this past weekend alone).
Here’s a review of each league so far in 2024-25, along with their predictability rating on Superbru, the most unpredictable team in each league and some key upcoming matches to look out for.
Predictability on Superbru Football (average % of people correctly predicting the outcome of a game): 49% (6th most predictable of 12 active tournaments)
Most unpredictable team (average % of players correctly predicting the outcome of a specific team’s games: Brighton (26.5%)
When looking at the Premier League table (shown below), there are a number of elements that go against what was expected in pre-season. The most obvious is that Liverpool are 5 points clear at the top having had a near perfect start to life under Arne Slot, suggesting Jurgen Klopp was an ideal manager to succeed rather than an irreplaceable one, but it’s Nottingham Forest who stand out as most suitably fitting the legendary ‘what the hell is a polar bear doing in Arlington, Texas?’ meme.
Forest have lost just 2 of their opening 11 games this season and with an average predictability of 29.8% would be comfortably clear as the most unpredictable team in the league (because they keep surprising everyone by doing so much better than last season) if it wasn’t for Brighton winning their difficult matches and losing or drawing their easy ones.
The bottom of the table is less surprising with Crystal Palace the only team who are perhaps quite significantly below pre-season expectations. Wolves are also in the bottom three but after a very difficult opening run of fixtures, while the newly promoted sides are all inside the bottom six.
After some fairly favourable opening rounds of our Premier League Predictor which saw quite a few of you come very close to winning the £10,000 jackpot prize that we offer if you score 28pts in a single round, things have got more difficult in recent weeks and predictions are likely to remain challenging considering how even the table is overall.
As you can see, just 4 points separate Chelsea (3rd) and Manchester United (13th), so there’s plenty of potential for teams to rise up (or fall down) the table very quickly and United are surely among the candidates to put together a strong run throughout November and December as they hope for a ‘bounce’ under Ruben Amorim who took charge on Monday following a very successful spell with Sporting CP.
Notable upcoming fixtures in the next round:
Manchester City vs. Tottenham – City looking to end a 4-match losing run across all comps
Ipswich Town vs. Manchester United – Ruben Amorim’s first game in charge of Manchester United
Predictability on Superbru Football: 47% (9th most predictable of 12 active tournaments)
Most unpredictable team: Real Sociedad (27.2%)
Hansi Flick’s impact at Barcelona has been incredible, with a 0-4 win in the Clasico away at Real Madrid last month the clear standout result of the season so far in Spain. With Madrid expected to dominate even more than last season following the signing of Kylian Mbappe, things have actually proven tricky for the defending champions and even last weekend – which saw them beat Osasuna and Barcelona lose at Real Sociedad – brought plenty of extra concern.
Whereas Barca came into this season with a huge injury list, picked up excellent results anyway thanks to Flick and some La Masia graduates, and now have lots of big players returning from the sidelines, Real Madrid had a poor start to the campaign and now have a growing injury list. Dani Carvajal suffered a nasty ACL injury at the start of October and has been sorely missed, Thibaut Courtois continues to struggle for fitness, and more recently Madrid have lost Aurelien Tchouameni, Lucas Vazquez, Rodrygo and Eder Militao with the latter ruled out for the season like Carvajal with the second ACL injury of his career.
Considering Madrid looked short of depth in defence before a ball was even kicked this season, the absence of Militao and Carvajal will be a huge problem. Even more so when Tchouameni (who covers Militao at centre back) and Lucas Vazquez (Carvajal’s backup) are now also out.
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Despite all this, Real Madrid look like the only realistic competition to Barca and the LaLiga title. Atletico Madrid are unbeaten at home but remain unconvincing away and Girona (who finished 3rd last season) are way off the pace as expected following several departures in the summer. Atleti and Villarreal, who make up the rest of the top four do look fairly well placed to retain those places all year though, with Atleti’s squad very strong and Villarreal already benefiting from a lack of UEFA competition that allows them to throw everything at the league.
Osasuna are LaLiga’s Arlington polar bear following shock wins against both Barcelona and Real Sociedad but expect Athletic Club and Real Betis to move ahead of them in the coming weeks. Real Sociedad are now on the up themselves after a poor start (and that defeat to Osasuna) with recent wins over Sevilla and Barcelona setting up what should be quite a Basque derby against Athletic Club next weekend.
At the bottom, it’s sad to see a club the size of Valencia rooted in 20th, though the devastating recent flooding in the region means they have a couple of games in hand on most teams in the league following postponements. The damaging way in which the club has been run for several years looks to be catching up with Valencia on the pitch who face an uphill battle to survive in the top flight this season, though that is of course trivial in comparison to the tragedy Valencia and other Spanish regions are facing at the moment with further heavy rain still threatening the country.
Notable upcoming fixtures in the next round:
Valencia vs. Real Betis – Valencia return to action at Mestalla in what will be an emotional first fixture since the recent flooding
Athletic Club vs. Real Sociedad – the first Basque derby of the season
Predictability on Superbru Football: 48% (7th most predictable of 12 active tournaments)
Most unpredictable team: Mainz 05 (26.5%)
Many will look at the Bundesliga top six below and think ‘mmm same as usual then’ but that of course wasn’t the case last season when Bayer Leverkusen ended Bayern Munich’s run of 11 straight titles. As a result, Vincent Kompany deserves credit for the start Bayern have made in this season’s campaign, while Leverkusen have understandably struggled to match their 2023-24 invincible season. Xabi Alonso’s team have only lost once so far in this season’s Bundesliga, but 5 draws in 10 games means they are 9 points behind Bayern.
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One team that is missing from the above graphic is Borussia Dortmund who are a goal behind Union Berlin on goal difference. After an underwhelming start, new manager and former player Nuri Sahin bought himself some time with a 2-1 win over RB Leipzig at the start of this month, though the positive effect of that result has been extinguished somewhat by Saturday’s 3-1 defeat at Mainz who, as the stat above states, have been the most unpredictable team in the league based on Superbru data. Dortmund have won 5/5 at home but are yet to win away in the Bundesliga, losing 4/5.
Unsurprisingly considering they concede 3 goals a game on average, VfL Bochum are yet to win this season and are bottom of the table, though a shock 1-1 draw with Leverkusen on Saturday could be the spark they need to turn things around a bit? VfB Stuttgart, who qualified for the Champions League last season, are down in 11th as things stand and perhaps most concerningly have lost their invincible home record. Having not lost at home since October 2023, Stuttgart were beaten by Atalanta in the Champions League on Wednesday and a league defeat at MHPArena to Eintracht Frankfurt quickly followed on Sunday.
Notable upcoming fixtures in the next round:
VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Bochum – reasons outlined in the paragraph above!
Borussia Dortmund vs. Freiburg – just a point separates the teams who are each battling for the European places
Predictability on Superbru Football: 48% (8th most predictable of 12 active tournaments)
Most unpredictable team: Parma (27%)
Serie A looks set to be great fun at both ends of the table this season. 2 points separate the top six. 2 points separate the bottom six.
Focusing more on the top (because it’s more fun and that’s what the graphic below shows), there’s plenty of intrigue around each of the teams involved in what could well be a very open title race. This isn’t even including AC Milan who are 6 points behind Juve in 7th after a turbulent start to life under Paulo Fonseca has included unhappy fans and an unhappy Rafael Leao but also wins over Inter and Real Madrid.
Napoli lead the way with Antonio Conte having a typically strong first season in charge so you’d be brave to bet against him. His favourite striker Romelu Lukaku is there with him leading the line while Scottish midfielders Scott McTominay and Billy Gilmour are also excelling in debut seasons with the club.
Atalanta just get more and more fun, building on their Europa League triumph last season with a great start to 2024-25 that has included 31 goals in their opening 12 league games.
Fiorentina are 3rd after six straight wins with Moise Kean banging goals in for them and David de Gea preventing goals at the other end.
Inter are of course defending champions and probably still the team to beat as a result.
Lazio are 5th after 10 wins in 11 games across all competitions with former Arsenal full back Nuno Tavares already on 8 assists which is by far the best in Serie A.
And then you’ve got Juventus who are the only unbeaten team in the league after a steady rather than explosive start under Thiago Motta.
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I’d expect Napoli and Inter to end up a cut above the rest but there’s certainly room for further surprises given the number of Serie A teams also playing European football thanks to their success in last season’s UEFA competitions.
It’s disappointing that Roma (12th) aren’t also in the mix as they continue to look a bit of a mess really due to their (lack of) leadership off the pitch – reports suggest Claudio Ranieri will soon be in caretaker charge following the sacking of Ivan Juric. They face the top two in their next two games, meaning it really would have to be quite a bounce for there to be a turnaround anytime soon regardless of who they appoint.
As mentioned, the bottom of the table is similarly even with Cesc Fabregas’s Como (15th) currently 2 points ahead of 20th-placed Venezia. Lecce stand out as being particularly poor in attack having scored just 5 goals so far this season, but they’ve still won a game more than Monza who are managed by Milan legend Alessandro Nesta.
Notable upcoming fixtures in the next round:
Milan vs. Juventus – Milan desperately need a win to close the gap between the teams, can they become the first to defeat Juve this season?
Napoli vs. Roma – if this does prove to be Claudio Ranieri’s return, can he pull off a big upset in Naples?
Predictability on Superbru Football: 46% (10th most predictable of 12 active tournaments)
Most unpredictable team: Auxerre (25.7%)
There’s nothing surprising about Paris Saint-Germain being unbeaten at the top of Ligue 1 (while struggling a bit in the Champions League) but Ligue 1 is statistically the most unpredictable top European league on Superbru Football so far this season, with only Australia’s A-League (42%) and the very difficult EFL Championship (40%) proving more tricky for players on this platform.
Newly promoted Auxerre have been a key reason for that. After winning Ligue 2 last season, Christophe Pelissier saw his team return to Ligue 1 with a 2-1 win over Nice in the opening round before losing 5 out of 6 games. Since then, Auxerre are unbeaten in 4 matches including an impressive 2-2 draw away at Lyon and a stunning 1-3 victory away at Marseille last time out.
That result has added slight pressure to Marseille boss Roberto De Zerbi who has overseen a very interesting form split since arriving from Brighton. In complete contrast to Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga (and indeed most teams), Marseille have been better than anyone in Ligue 1 away from home with 5/6 wins but are in the relegation zone in terms of home form with just 1 win from 5. Obviously that record isn’t pleasing the rather vocal fanbase at the Velodrome.
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Adi Hutter continues to oversee good progress at AS Monaco who have had a solid start with just 8 goals conceded in 11 games. Monaco look like the only real (unlikely) challenge to PSG but the battle for the European places looks set to be a good one with Lyon enjoying a much better start than their fairly disastrous beginning to 2023-24. Pierre Sage’s team are unbeaten in 6 league games with Lille and Nice also enjoying similarly strong recent runs.
At the bottom, Montpellier have had a surprisingly bad start but will hope their 3-1 win over Brest at the weekend can trigger a surge up the table, while Brest themselves have surprised plenty by being far more competitive in their debut Champions League campaign than they have been in Ligue 1. Brest currently sit inside the top four on the Champions League standings but appear unlikely to qualify for the tournament again next season based on their current domestic form.
Notable upcoming fixtures in the next round:
Lens vs. Marseille – An opportunity for Lens to move level on points with Marseille if they can dent their excellent away record
Reims vs. Lyon – Just a point separates Reims (7th) and Lyon (5th)
What have you made of the start of the 2024-25 season? Do your Predictor ‘bogey teams’ line up with the teams that are listed as being the most unpredictable here?
To see the predictability stats of any team on football team on Superbru, simply head to their profile on the Superbru Football app.
